Deal or No Deal in Gaza, Hamas Must Decide Today, Netanyahu in a Bind
If Hamas accepts the deal, Netanyahu has no choice but to go along since it was Israel who proposed the deal. But a deal could topple his government. Details below.
A Moment of Truth
Eurointelligence sums up the situation as a Moment of Truth.
Hamas has until tonight to respond to the Egypt mediated proposal of a hostage deal. If they agree to the deal, Benjamin Netanyahu would have no choice but to accept. But Netanyahu is also playing for his own political survival. After bowing to the pressures of members of Israel’s war cabinet to agree on a hostage deal with Hamas using the invasion of Rafah as leverage, Netanyahu flipped yesterday by assuring his far-right ministers Itamar Ben Givr and Bezalel Smotrich, who oppose the deal, that they will go into Rafah anyway, that this is not the end of the war, and that they will not accept any deal. The Biden administration is now floating the idea of suspending certain arms deliveries if Israel were to go into Rafah.
That is more that a bit contradictory. Allegedly Netanyahu would have no choice but to accept the deal, while simultaneously telling his coalition partners he won’t honor the deal.
And there’s Biden, proposing more red lines on military aid that he won’t honor.
It is a tragedy that Israel’s attempt to teach Hamas a lesson caused such a collateral damage, not only for Palestinian lives, but also for how Israel is seen in the world. Rafah would cross the line for many countries. There is already talk of an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court, and Netanyahu’s plea to Joe Biden to prevent this as if the US could do anything about it. Student protests in the US also signal that US support for Israel may no longer be so steadfast in the future as it has been in the past. There is also a question of how much longer Arab states can hold on to the promise of normalisation if Israel crosses this particular red line. The moment of choice between realpolitik and ideological warfare is about to come.
European and Arab foreign ministers, meanwhile, met in Riyadh on the sidelines of a two-day World Economic Forum event to discuss how to join forces in advancing the two-state solution. As one of the organisers of this meeting, Norway’s foreign minister Espen Barth Eide, put it:
“If we want to move this two-state solution forward it will not happen from the parties. I do not believe that Israel is ready to negotiate at this point, and I do not think that the US is ready to take the necessary leadership.”
Biden has proven he has no leadership, on anything.
Josep Borrell [High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy] invited Arab leaders to present their proposals for a two-state solution, and wants EU countries to invite them to Brussels for discussions, writes Euractiv. His hope is that a proposal from the Arab states would force European countries to overcome their divisions and work towards a joint solution. Several EU member states are also expected to recognise the state of Palestine soon. So far, eight of the 27 EU member states recognise Palestine, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Czechia, Slovakia, Sweden and Cyprus. France’s foreign minister linked the question of recognition to a strategy towards a two state solution.
On three occasions, Netanyahu has crossed Biden’s red lines, only to be rewarded with Biden seeking more military aid for Israel.
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson delivered enough Republican votes for the legislation to pass.
What’s in the Hamas Deal?
We finally have some details as explained by the Wall Street Journal.
- The first stage would involve the release of at least 20 to 33 hostages for a period of calm that could last up to 40 days.
- The pause could then be extended at a rate of one day for each hostage released. Israel in return would release 20 Palestinian prisoners for each child, civilian woman, elderly person or wounded hostage. For each female soldier freed, Israel would release 40 Palestinian prisoners, with half of them serving life prison sentences.
- A second phase would include at least a six-week cease-fire during which Hamas and Israel would agree on a larger hostage release and an extended pause in fighting that could last up to a year.
What’s with this “period of calm” phraseology? How does it differ from a truce?
Regardless, this looks like a good deal for Hamas. If Israel does not honor it (or if it does) Netanyahu may be ousted. He is hanging by a thread.
Hamas should take the deal. Then it will be up to both sides to honor it.
What Color Are Biden’s Red Lines?
On March 10, I asked Are Biden’s Red Lines to Netanyahu Really Yellow or Green?
Presumably you know the answer now, but if not, please consider this idle threat: Biden Threatens Sanctions on Israeli Soldiers Yet Wants More Money for Israel
If you are going to have red lines, I suggest they should be red.
Regarding red lines with China, please see China Crossed Biden’s Red Line on Ukraine, So What?